So it seems that, while we still are motivated by own self-interest, the addition of social dynamics to the two-person Stag Hunt game leads to a tendency of most people agreeing to hunt the stag. Understanding the Stag Hunt Game: How Deer Hunting Explains Why People The original stag hunt dilemma is as follows: a group of hunters have tracked a large stag, and found it to follow a certain path. Some have accused rivals of being Taliban sympathizers while others have condemned their counterparts for being against peace. In chapter 6 of Man, the State, and War, precursor of the anarchical view of international relations, and an extension of the stag-hunt example: [5] They can, for example, work together to improve good corporate governance. Hume's second example involves two neighbors wishing to drain a meadow. At the same time, a growing literature has illuminated the risk that developing AI has of leading to global catastrophe[4] and further pointed out the effect that racing dynamics has on exacerbating this risk. In the long term, environmental regulation in theory protects us all, but even if most of the countries sign the treaty and regulate, some like China and the US will not forsovereigntyreasons, or because they areexperiencinggreat economic gain. Evidence from AI Experts (2017: 11-21), retrieved from http://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807. Payoff matrix for simulated Deadlock. Finally, Jervis[40] also highlights the security dilemma where increases in an actors security can inherently lead to the decreased security of a rival state. Table 7. In addition to boasting the worlds largest economies, China and the U.S. also lead the world in A.I. The Stag Hunt: A Lesson in Game Theory - Ascenturn One significant limitation of this theory is that it assumes that the AI Coordination Problem will involve two key actors. There is no certainty that the stag will arrive; the hare is present. This table contains an ordinal representation of a payoff matrix for a Chicken game. An approximation of a Stag Hunt in international relations would be an international treaty such as the Paris Climate Accords, where the protective benefits of environmental regulation from the harms of climate change (in theory) outweigh the benefits of economic gain from defecting. HW?n9*K$kBOQiBo1d\QlQ%AAW\gQV#j^KRmEB^]L6Rw4muu.G]a>[U/h;@ip|=PS[nyfGI0YD+FK:or+:=y&4i'kvC It comes with colossal opportunities, but also threats that are difficult to predict. As a result, there is no conflict between self-interest and mutual benefit, and the dominant strategy of both actors would be to cooperate. The stag hunt problem originated with philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau in his Discourse on Inequality. The area of international relations theory that is most characterized by overt metaphorical imagery is that of game theory.Although the imagery of game theory would suggest that the games were outgrowths of metaphorical thinking, the origins of game theory actually are to be found in the area of mathematics. Perhaps most alarming, however, is the global catastrophic risk that the unchecked development of AI presents. which can be viewed through the lens of the stag hunt in for an example the countrys only international conference in International Relations from, Scenario Assurance game is a generic name for the game more commonly known as Stag Hunt. The French philosopher, Jean Jacques Rousseau, presented the following Stag hunt - Wikipedia 2 Examples of states include the United States, Germany, China, India, Bolivia, South Africa, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam. International Relations, The second technology revolution caused World War II. The game is a prototype of the social contract. There is a substantial relationship between the stag hunt and the prisoner's dilemma. Read the following questions. If participation is not universal, they cannot surround the stag and it escapes, leaving everyone that hunted stag hungry. Huntington[37] makes a distinction between qualitative arms races (where technological developments radically transform the nature of a countrys military capabilities) and quantitative arms races (where competition is driven by the sheer size of an actors arsenal). The best response correspondences are pictured here. xref Still, predicting these values and forecasting probabilities based on information we do have is valuable and should not be ignored solely because it is not perfect information. Several animal behaviors have been described as stag hunts. }}F:,EdSr This means that it remains in U.S. interests to stay in the hunt for now, because, if the game theorists are right, that may actually be the best path to bringing our troops home for good. The payoff matrix in Figure 1 illustrates a generic stag hunt, where In recent times, more doctrinal exceptions to Article 2(4) such as anticipatory self defence (especially after the events of 9/11) and humanitarian intervention. In addition to the pure strategy Nash equilibria there is one mixed strategy Nash equilibrium. This is expressed in the following way: The intuition behind this is laid out in Armstrong et al.s Racing to the precipice: a model of artificial intelligence.[55] The authors suggest each actor would be incentivized to skimp on safety precautions in order to attain the transformative and powerful benefits of AI before an opponent. In order to mitigate or prevent the deleterious effects of arms races, international relations scholars have also studied the dynamics that surround arms control agreements and the conditions under which actors might coordinate with one another. On the other hand, Glaser[46] argues that rational actors under certain conditions might opt for cooperative policies. Using game theoretical representations of state preferences, Downs et al. Both actors are more optimistic in Actor Bs chances of developing a beneficial AI, but also agree that entering an AI Coordination Regime would result in the highest chances of a beneficial AI. Schelling and Halperin[44] offer a broad definition of arms control as all forms of military cooperation between potential enemies in the interest of reducing the likelihood of war, its scope and violence if it occurs, and the political and economic costs of being prepared for it.. The stag hunters are likely to interact with other stag hunters to seek mutual benefit, while hare hunters rarely care with whom they interact with since they rather not depend on others for success. (required), 2023 Cornell University Powered by Edublogs Campus and running on blogs.cornell.edu, The Stag Hunt Theory and the Formation Social of Contracts, http://www.socsci.uci.edu/~bskyrms/bio/papers/StagHunt.pdf. The remainder of this subsection looks at numerical simulations that result in each of the four models and discusses potential real-world hypotheticals these simulations might reflect. David Hume provides a series of examples that are stag hunts. This same dynamic could hold true in the development of an AI Coordination Regime, where actors can decide whether to abide by the Coordination Regime or find a way to cheat. This allows for coordination, and enables players to move from the strategy with the lowest combined payoff (both cheat) to the strategy with the highest combined payoff (both cooperate). What should Franks do? Each model is differentiated primarily by the payoffs to cooperating or defecting for each international actor. This situation is often seen as a useful analogy for many kinds of social cooperation, such as international agreements on climate change.[1]. For instance, if the expected punishment is 2, then the imposition of this punishment turns the above prisoner's dilemma into the stag hunt given at the introduction. [19] UN News, UN artificial intelligence summit aims to tackle poverty, humanitys grand challenges, United Nations, June 7, 2017, https://news.un.org/en/story/2017/06/558962-un-artificial-intelligence-summit-aims-tackle-poverty-humanitys-grand. Next, I outline my theory to better understand the dynamics of the AI Coordination Problem between two opposing international actors. [24] Defined by Bostrom as an intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills, Nick Bostrom, How long before suerintelligence? Linguistic and Philosophical Investigations 5, 1(2006): 11-30. 201-206. For example, if the players could flip a coin before choosing their strategies, they might agree to correlate their strategies based on the coin flip by, say, choosing ballet in the event of heads and prize fight in the event of tails. In addition to the example suggested by Rousseau, David Hume provides a series of examples that are stag hunts. Based on the values that each actor assigns to their payoff variables, we can expect different coordination models (Prisoners Dilemma, Chicken, Deadlock, or Stag Hunt) to arise. might complicate coordination efforts. In the context of international relations, this model has been used to describe preferences of actors when deciding to enter an arms treaty or not. If either hunts a stag alone, the chance of success is minimal. This equilibrium depends on the payoffs, but the risk dominance condition places a bound on the mixed strategy Nash equilibrium. Additionally, this model accounts for an AI Coordination Regime that might result in variable distribution of benefits for each actor. There are three levels - the man, the structure of the state and the international system. These talks involve a wide range of Afghanistans political elites, many of whom are often painted as a motley crew of corrupt warlords engaged in tribalized opportunism at the expense of a capable government and their own countrymen. This table contains an ordinal representation of a payoff matrix for a game in Deadlock. Stag hunt definition and meaning | Collins English Dictionary To reiterate, the primary function of this theory is to lay out a structure for identifying what game models best represent the AI Coordination Problem, and as a result, what strategies should be applied to encourage coordination and stability. POLS1501 Practice Flashcards | Quizlet We see this in the media as prominent news sources with greater frequency highlight new developments and social impacts of AI with some experts heralding it as the new electricity.[10] In the business realm, investments in AI companies are soaring. [48] Denise Garcia and Monica Herz, Preventive Action in World Politics, Global Policy 7, 3(2016): 370379. Dipali Mukhopadhyay is an associate professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University and the author of Warlords, Strongman Governors, and the State in Afghanistan (Cambridge University Press, 2014). THE STAG HUNT THE STAG HUNT T HE Stag Hunt is a story that became a game. Prisoner's Dilemma - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy In short, the theory suggests that the variables that affect the payoff structure of cooperating or defecting from an AI Coordination Regime determine which model of coordination we see arise between the two actors (modeled after normal-form game setups). It truly takes a village, to whom this paper is dedicated. Finally, a Stag Hunt occurs when the returns for both actors are higher if they cooperate than if either or both defect. A sudden drop in current troop levels will likely trigger a series of responses that undermine the very peace and stability the United States hopes to achieve. For example, if the two international actors cooperate with one another, we can expect some reduction in individual payoffs if both sides agree to distribute benefits amongst each other. PDF Mistrust, Misperception, and Misunderstanding: Imperfect Information Outline a basic understanding of what the discipline of International Relations is about, and Jean Jacques Rousseau (1712-1778): Parable of the Stag Hunt. Additionally, both actors perceive the potential returns to developing AI to be greater than the potential harms. Both games are games of cooperation, but in the Stag-hunt there is hope you can get to the "good" outcome. Understanding the Stag Hunt Game: How Deer Hunting Explains Why People are Socially Late. Additionally, the feedback, discussion, resource recommendations, and inspiring work of friends, colleagues, and mentors in several time zones especially Amy Fan, Carrick Flynn, Will Hunt, Jade Leung, Matthijs Maas, Peter McIntyre, Professor Nuno Monteiro, Gabe Rissman, Thomas Weng, Baobao Zhang, and Remco Zwetsloot were vital to this paper and are profoundly appreciated. To what extent does today's mainstream media provide us with an objective view of war? [14] IBM, Deep Blue, Icons of Progress, http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/ibm100/us/en/icons/deepblue/. [11] This Article conceptualizes a stag hunt in which the participants are countries that host extractive companies on their stock exchanges, including the U.S., Canada, the United Kingdom, the Member States . [5] Stuart Armstrong, Nick Bostrom, & Carl Shulman, Racing to the precipice: a model of artificial intelligence development, AI and Society 31, 2(2016): 201206. As a result, this could reduce a rival actors perceived relative benefits gained from developing AI. Within the arms race literature, scholars have distinguished between types of arms races depending on the nature of arming. Donna Franks, an accountant for Southern Technologies Corporation, discovers that her supervisor, Elise Silverton, made several errors last year. The 18th century political philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau famously described a dilemma that arises when a group of hunters sets out in search of a stag: To catch the prized male deer, they must cooperate, waiting quietly in the woods for its arrival. Each player must choose an action without knowing the choice of the other. hunting stag is successful only if both hunters hunt stag, while each hunter can catch a less valuable hare on his own. [5] As a result, it is becoming increasingly vital to understand and develop strategies to manage the human process of developing AI. If they are discovered, or do not cooperate, the stag will flee, and all will go hungry. Despite the large number of variables addressed in this paper, this is at its core a simple theory with the aims of motivating additional analysis and research to branch off. An individual can get a hare by himself, but a hare is worth less than a stag. Let us call a stag hunt game where this condition is met a stag hunt dilemma. trailer Since the payoff of hunting the stags is higher, these interactions lead to an environment in which the Stag Hunters prosper. This table contains a sample ordinal representation of a payoff matrix for a Stag Hunt game. Other names for it or its variants include "assurance game", "coordination game", and "trust dilemma". The Stag Hunt UCI School of Social Sciences, Example of stag hunt in international relations, on Example of stag hunt in international relations, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stag_Hunt_Mosaic, example of application letter for sales representative, Example of selection criteria planning and organising, Example sentences with the word detrimental, Manual de access 2010 avanzado pdf en espanol gratis. This table contains a representation of a payoff matrix. 0000002169 00000 n Formally, a stag hunt is a game with two pure strategy Nash equilibriaone that is risk dominant and another that is payoff dominant. Type of game model and prospect of coordination. She dismisses Clausewitz with the argument that he saw war as "the use of military means to defeat another state" and that this approach to warfare is no longer applicable in today's conflicts. In game theory, the stag hunt is a game that describes a conflict between safety and social cooperation. If they are discovered, or do not cooperate, the stag will flee, and all will go hungry. [25] In a particularly telling quote, Stephen Hawking, Stuart Russell, Max Tegmark, and Frank Wilczek foreshadow this stark risk: One can imagine such technology outsmarting financial markets, out-inventing human researchers, out-manipulating human leaders, and developing weapons we cannot even understand. As will hold for the following tables, the most preferred outcome is indicated with a 4, and the least preferred outcome is indicated with a 1., Actor As preference order: DC > CC > DD > CD, Actor Bs preference order: CD > CC > DD > DC. %%EOF Table 9. The Stag Hunt game, derived from Rousseaus story, describes the following scenario: a group of two or more people can cooperate to hunt down the more rewarding stag or go their separate ways and hunt less rewarding hares. As stated before, achieving a scenario where both actors perceive to be in a Stag Hunt is the most desirable situation for maximizing safety from an AI catastrophe, since both actors are primed to cooperate and will maximize their benefits from doing so. On the other hand, real life examples of poorly designed compensation structures that create organizational inefficiencies and hinder success are not uncommon. The remainder of this subsection briefly examines each of these models and its relationship with the AI Coordination Problem. The familiar Prisoners Dilemma is a model that involves two actors who must decide whether to cooperate in an agreement or not. Table 13. N-person stag hunt dilemmas Jorge M. Pachecol'*, Francisco C. Santos2, Max O. Souza3 and Brian Skyrms4 . Not wanting to miss out on the high geopolitical drama, Moscow invited Afghanistans former president, Hamid Karzai, and a cohort of powerful elitesamong them rivals of the current presidentto sit down with a Taliban delegation last week. Depending on the payoff structures, we can anticipate different likelihoods of and preferences for cooperation or defection on the part of the actors. These remain real temptations for a political elite that has survived decades of war by making deals based on short time horizons and low expectations for peace. A classic game theoretic allegory best demonstrates the various incentives at stake for the United States and Afghan political elites at this moment. The story is briey told by Rousseau, in A Discourse on Inequality: "If it was a matter of hunting a deer, everyone well realized that he must remain faithful to his post; but if a hare happened to pass within reach In the context of the AI Coordination Problem, a Stag Hunt is the most desirable outcome as mutual cooperation results in the lowest risk of racing dynamics and associated risk of developing a harmful AI. First-move advantage will be decisive in determining the winner of the race due to the expected exponential growth in capabilities of an AI system and resulting difficulty of other parties to catch up. Finally, I discuss the relevant policy and strategic implications this theory has on achieving international AI coordination, and assess the strengths and limitations of the theory in practice. In their paper, the authors suggest Both the game that underlies an arms race and the conditions under which it is conducted can dramatically affect the success of any strategy designed to end it[58]. Despite this, there still might be cases where the expected benefits of pursuing AI development alone outweigh (in the perception of the actor) the potential harms that might arise. HtV]o6*l_\Ek=2m"H)$]feV%I,/i~==_&UA0K=~=,M%p5H|UJto%}=#%}U[-=nh}y)bhQ:*&#HzF1"T!G i/I|P&(Jt92B5*rhA"4 HV6am`vjyJ%K>{:kK$C$$EedI3OilJZT$h_'eN. A person's choice to bind himself to a social contract depends entirely on his beliefs whether or not the other person's or people's choice. Specifically, it is especially important to understand where preferences of vital actors overlap and how game theory considerations might affect these preferences. d We have recently seen an increase in media acknowledgement of the benefits of artificial intelligence (AI), as well as the negative social implications that can arise from its development. SCJ Int'l L. & Bus. This iterated structure creates an incentive to cooperate; cheating in the first round significantly reduces the likelihood that the other player will trust one enough to attempt to cooperate in the future. 0000006962 00000 n
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